Over the next year and a half, hospitals’ supply chain teams should expect to see pharmacy price inflation temper while other indirect spending and purchased services jump higher, Vizient wrote in a recently released forecast report.
The healthcare data and improvement company estimates that, between July 2026 and June 2027, average market prices across the full healthcare supply chain will rise by 2.78%, up from the 2.41% inflation prediction it had posted six months earlier in its previous outlook report.
The top-line number is split between a 2.32% estimated average price increase for medical products but a 3.85% increase in indirect spend and purchased services.
While the latter spans a broad range of spend categories such as construction (3.7% projected price change), food (3.63%) and nonmedical capital equipment (4.15%), the heightened average is largely coming from substantial projected price increases for IT services (4.5%) and IT hardware/software (5.66%), according to Vizient’s report.
The group’s latest prediction reflects “a complex set of persistent cost pressures” including tariffs’ impact on raw materials and labor costs across various sectors. They also, Vizient noted, come amid the broader backdrop of last year’s rising patient volumes, projected demand increases across acute and ambulatory settings, and policy volatility expected to increase hospitals’ bad debt and charity care.
“These trends reinforce a key takeaway: negotiating unit price alone is no longer sufficient,” Vizient wrote. “Health systems will need to pair contracting with utilization management, standardization and total cost-of-ownership strategies to reduce unwarranted variation and protect margins over time.”
Meanwhile, a 2.84% projected change in the price of pharmaceuticals (as purchased by Vizient pharmacy program participants, based on the past year of traditional wholesaler purchases) is down from a 3.35% increase projected half a year back. Pharmacy spend within acute care is predicted to rise by 3.03%, while ambulatory is expected to see a 2.85% increase.
Pharmaceuticals are still the largest and fastest-growing portion of hospitals' nonlabor expenses, and in 2023 reflected 7% to 8% of hospitals' total operating costs, Vizient noted. The projected reduction for the third quarter of 2026 through the second quarter of 2027 reflects a combination of drug pricing reforms and rising competition among high-spend drug products.
Particularly noteworthy are price drops that went into effect Jan. 1 under the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, with the report specifically highlighting apixaban (Eliquis), a prescription blood thinner. On competition, Vizient pointed to the impact of recent biosimilar market entries challenging ustekinumab (Stelara) and adalimumab (Humira).
Within specific clinical areas, Vizient underscored health systems’ rapid expansion of theranostic capabilities that pair diagnostic imaging and targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy, fueling related utilization and capital investment in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Widespread adoption of GLP-1 therapies has already cut bariatric surgery volumes, Vizient added, and could reduce demand for certain interventions while potentially increasing demand for cosmetic and reconstructive services.
“This is not a uniform inflation environment,” Carina Dolan, associate vice president, clinical oncology, pharmacoeconomics and market insights at Vizient, said in a statement. “Some cost pressures are moderating, while others are accelerating or shifting location. The challenge for health system leaders is managing that divergence and reallocating resources accordingly.”
More broadly, Vizient’s report noted that cost constraint is just one of the factors health system leaders will need to consider amid a landscape of operating model upheaval and technological advances.
“Overall inflation rates provide an important benchmark,” Dolan said. “Long-term success and effective planning depends on understanding how cost pressures, utilization and care delivery patterns are evolving.”